美元投机性头寸规模创历史新高在短暂的一周休整之后，市场做多美元的积极性

美元投机性头寸规模创历史新高
在短暂的一周休整之后，市场做多美元的积极性在上周再度回升。根据高盛的统计，美元净多头规模上周增长20亿美元，达到创纪录的457亿美元。投行对于美元受到热捧发表了如下看法。
我们使用两种数据来判断资金流向。一种是CFTC/IMM的持仓数据，另外一种 则是21日内货币对冲基金的美元资金流向。数据可以明显的看到，货币基金的看涨情绪并没有投机性头寸那么明显。换句话说，宏观基金和资产经理在美元多 头上的配置要比货币对冲基金更多。因此，市场的极端情况可能并没有那么的夸张。
市场持续做多美元，净多头头寸创历史新高至457亿美元。其中做空欧元的头寸规模达281亿美元，占整个美元总多头头寸的62%。所有非美货币如今都对美元贬值，凸显出市场对美元的积极情绪。
市场参与者似乎急于增加交易的风险度，许多货币对的空头及多头总规模均明显增加，这表明交易活跃度的逐步上升。
近期美元的强势和金融危机时代有一些类似。全球经济增长不佳引发了资金流向美元。但是强势美元会压低美国通胀，并导致美联储加息步伐的放缓。虽然我们预计欧元/美元将跌至1.10；美元/日元将升至120；美元/日元(此处或为人民币(6.1195, -0.0032, -0.05%))将升至6.50；但是美元大幅升值的前提是全球主要经济体之间的差距进一步放大。

結果 (英文) 1:

Historically high dollar size of speculative positionsAfter a brief break a week, last week, the enthusiasm of the market to go long dollars in back up again. According to Goldman's figures, dollars net long size increase by $ 2 billion last week, reaching a record $ 45.7 billion. Investment banks for dollars by the blitz made the following observations.We use two types of data to determine fund flows. One is the CFTC/IMM of positioning data, another is the 21st currency hedge fund dollar fund flows. Data can clearly see, the IMF no speculative positions of bullish sentiment and so obvious. In other words, macro funds and asset managers on the dollar bulls more configuration than currency hedge fund. Therefore, the extremes of the market may not be so exaggerated.Markets continued to go long dollars, net long position at record highs to $ 45.7 billion. Position size of bets against the euro to us $ 28.1 billion, accounting for $ 62% of the total long position. All non-us currencies against the dollar now, underscoring the positive mood of the market against the US dollar.Market participants seem to be eager to increase the risk of trading, many pairs of shorts and long overall size were significantly increased, suggesting that activity gradually increased.Recent strength of the US dollar and the financial crisis are similar. Poor global economic growth triggered a flow of dollars. But a strong dollar will depress United States inflation and slow pace of rate hikes by the Fed. Although we expect euro/dollar fell to 1.10, USD/JPY will rise to 120, USD/JPY (or RMB (6.1195-0.0032-0.05%)) to rise to 6.50; but the sharp rise in the dollar on the premise that the gap between the world's major economies for further amplification.

結果 (英文) 3:

Speculative positions in the size of a record high of $
after brief a week to rest, enthusiasm more than $market to pick up again in the last week. According to Goldman's statistics, the scale of net long dollar last week rose by $2000000000, to a record $45700000000. The investment bank for $Repeng stated. We use two kinds of data to determine the flow of funds. One is the position data of CFTC/IMM, another is 21 days of currency hedge fund dollar fund flows. Data can be seen, the monetary fund bullish mood was not so obvious speculative positions. In other words,Macro funds and asset managers in dollars head configuration than money more hedge funds. Therefore, extreme market conditions may not so exaggerated.
market continued to do more dollars, net long positions in a high of $45700000000 to history. The short positions in the euro $28100000000, accounted for the entire $62% total long position. All the non beautiful currency are now on the depreciation of the dollar, highlights the positive market sentiment on the dollar.
market participants seem to be eager to increase the transaction risk, bears many currency pairs and total long scale was significantly increased, which indicates that the transaction activity is rising.
The dollar's recent strong and financial crisis has some similar. Global economic growth in poor triggers capital flow of dollars. But the strong dollar will drive down the America inflation, and lead to a Fed rate hike pace slowed down. Although we expect euro / dollar fell to 1.10; USD / JPY rose to 120; USD / JPY (here or RMB (6.1195, -0.0032, -0.05%)) will rise to 6.50; but only a substantial appreciation of the dollar is the world's major economies, the gap between the further amplification.